The Effect of Cloud Type Changes on Emitted and Reflected Energy Over the Central Pacific From 1985 Through 1989

A quantitative investigation of the relationship between International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) C2 cloud and atmospheric variables and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) outgoing longwave flux (OLR) and shortwave flux (SW) was conducted. The area of study was the central Pacific, where considerable cloud and flux changes were observed from 1985 to 1989 in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event occurring in 1987. ISCCP C2 parameters were used as independent variables in the development of multiple linear models to predict OLR and SW fluxes. The statistical technique of all subsets regression was used to determine which combination of ISCCP C2 parameters would best predict OLR and SW fluxes. The models were developed for the years 1985 and 1989 (non-ENSO years) and tested by both month and year for the years 1986 through 1988. Predicted fluxes were made for three 15deg. latitude zones starting with an equatorial zone ranging from 7.5deg.N to 7.5deg.S and the immediate zones both to the north and south. Explained variances (R²) of over 92 % for the development period with typically higher R² estimates for the test period were observed. Predicted OLR and SW fluxes for each zones and predicted OLR Climatological Minimums (OCMs) were usually within +/-3 Wm^-2 of the actual flux estimates.