Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction

      Global observations of clouds and radiation provide for better scientific understanding to improve seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. For example, early CERES data from TRMM show that the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced radiative pattern across the Pacific basin, with increased deep convection in the eastern tropical Pacific and more clear sky conditions in the western tropical Pacific. Strong shortwave and longwave radiative anomalies (i.e., differences from a 5-year average from ERBE) were observed during the latter phase of the 1997-98 ENSO event. The radiative features are closely related to cloud amount, type, and thickness. CERES provides accurate radiation data as well as imager-derived cloud physical and microphysical properties needed to improve our knowledge of such large-scale climate perturbations.

CERES -- Derived ENSO Radiative Anomalies
January 1998 Minus January (1985-89)

Shortwave

Longwave